Bitcoin’s start to 2025 hasn’t been the explosive launch many anticipated. After briefly surging past $100,000, prices corrected sharply, dropping to around $75,000 and leaving investors and analysts questioning: Where exactly are we in the current Bitcoin halving cycle? In this analysis, we’ll cut through the noise and examine key on-chain metrics and macroeconomic signals to determine whether Bitcoin’s bull run still has legs—or if a deeper correction lies ahead.
Is This a Healthy Pullback or the End of the Bull Market?
A strong starting point is the MVRV-Z Score, a time-tested valuation metric that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. When this indicator dropped from a peak of 3.36 to around 1.43, it coincided with Bitcoin’s price retracing from nearly $100,000 to a temporary low near $75,000—a 30% correction that, while steep, fits historical patterns.
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Historically, MVRV-Z levels near 1.4 often mark local bottoms rather than cycle tops. In both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, similar pullbacks occurred before prices resumed their upward climb. This suggests the recent dip isn’t a sign of structural weakness but rather a typical mid-cycle correction—part of a healthy, sustainable bull market.
Key Bitcoin Cycle Indicators:
- MVRV-Z Score
- Value Days Destroyed (VDD)
- Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow
- Holding Period Analysis
- Macro-Economic Correlation
- Halving Cycle Timing
- Long-Term Holder Behavior
- Market Sentiment Cycles
These metrics help contextualize price movements beyond headlines and hype.
Tracking the Smart Money: On-Chain Clues to Market Psychology
Another powerful indicator is Value Days Destroyed (VDD) multiple. This metric weights Bitcoin transactions by how long the coins were held before moving—effectively measuring the “age” of spent supply. A spike in VDD often signals profit-taking by seasoned holders; conversely, low readings suggest accumulation.
Currently, the VDD multiple is deep in the “green zone,” a level typically seen at the tail end of bear markets or early in recovery phases. The sharp reversal from $106,000 may mark the exhaustion of profit-taking, with renewed accumulation now taking hold. This shift implies that informed participants are positioning themselves for the next leg up.
One of the most revealing tools is the Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow chart, which segments realized capital by coin age. It separates market participants into groups:
- New entrants (holding <1 month)
- Intermediate holders (1–2 years)
- Long-term holders (2+ years)
At the $106,000 peak, we saw a sharp spike in activity among new entrants—classic FOMO-driven buying at the top. Since then, their activity has cooled significantly, returning to levels typical of mid-bull market phases.
Meanwhile, holders with 1–2 years of tenure—often strategic accumulators with macro awareness—have resumed buying. This inverse relationship highlights a core market dynamic: when experienced investors accumulate at lows, retail often sells in fear or exits entirely.
This capital rotation pattern mirrors the classic “accumulate and distribute” cycle seen in 2020–2021 and reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is still on a predictable path.
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Where Are We in the Bitcoin Cycle?
From a macro-timing perspective, Bitcoin’s market cycle can be broken into three distinct phases:
1. Bear Market Phase
Characterized by deep drawdowns (70–90%) following a cycle top. Historically, bear markets last around 13–14 months.
2. Recovery Phase
Prices reclaim previous all-time highs. This phase typically lasts 23–26 months across past cycles.
3. Bull Run (Parabolic Growth) Phase
After breaking resistance, prices enter an exponential uptrend—often lasting 9–11 months.
The most recent bear market lasted exactly 14 months, aligning with historical averages. We are now well within the typical recovery window. However, this cycle has unfolded differently: instead of an immediate parabolic surge after surpassing prior highs, Bitcoin pulled back.
This deviation may actually be constructive. It suggests the market is forming a higher low—a consolidation that could precede a steeper ascent. If history holds and the average bull phase duration applies, the peak of this cycle could arrive around September 2025.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Wild Card
Despite bullish on-chain trends, macro risks remain. Analysis shows Bitcoin still maintains a strong correlation with traditional risk assets—particularly the S&P 500.
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Rising fears of a global recession and ongoing volatility in equities could delay or dampen Bitcoin’s next move upward. If stock markets weaken further, even strong internal fundamentals may not be enough to sustain momentum in the short term.
That said, Bitcoin’s increasing adoption as a macro hedge—especially amid growing institutional interest and geopolitical uncertainty—may help decouple it from equities over time.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is the Bitcoin bull run over after the drop from $100K?
A: Not necessarily. Historical data shows similar corrections during prior bull cycles. The current pullback aligns with typical mid-cycle behavior, especially when MVRV-Z and capital flow data point to accumulation—not capitulation.
Q: How do we know if long-term holders are really accumulating?
A: Metrics like declining VDD multiples and rising capital inflows into 1–2 year holder cohorts indicate strategic buying. These groups tend to buy during dips and hold through volatility—unlike short-term traders.
Q: What would confirm the next bull leg is starting?
A: A sustained breakout above $85,000–$90,000 with rising trading volume and renewed retail participation would signal renewed momentum. Additionally, declining exchange reserves and increasing wallet activity are positive leading indicators.
Q: Could macro conditions derail the next rally?
A: Yes. If equities enter a prolonged downturn or central banks tighten policy unexpectedly, risk assets like Bitcoin could face headwinds. However, stagflation or geopolitical stress might反而 boost BTC as a hedge.
Q: When might Bitcoin reach a new all-time high?
A: Based on historical cycle timing, late Q3 or early Q4 2025 remains a plausible window for a new peak—if macro conditions stabilize and on-chain accumulation continues.
Q: How reliable are halving-based cycle predictions?
A: While not perfect, halving events have historically marked inflection points. The post-halving supply shock typically fuels upward pressure 6–18 months later—making them valuable reference points when combined with on-chain data.
Final Outlook: Patience Amid Volatility
The current Bitcoin cycle is slower and more volatile than previous ones—but it hasn’t broken the fundamental pattern. On-chain indicators like MVRV-Z, VDD, and capital flow dynamics suggest a healthy market structure with long-term holders quietly accumulating.
While macroeconomic uncertainty poses real risks, internal fundamentals remain constructive. Bitcoin appears to be building a foundation for another leg higher. If traditional markets avoid further deterioration, we could see new highs emerge by late 2025.
For investors, this phase calls for discipline: avoid panic selling during corrections and recognize that sustainable bull markets rarely move in straight lines. The data suggests we’re not at the end—but potentially entering a pivotal stage where patience may be rewarded.
Stay informed, monitor key metrics, and prepare for what could be one of Bitcoin’s most consequential chapters yet.