In today’s fast-moving digital economy, names like Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum dominate headlines. New entrants such as Polkadot and Pancake Swap add to the growing complexity of the cryptocurrency landscape, making it feel as though money is being conjured from thin air—what Edgar Allan Poe might have described as a “dream within a dream.” Yet, while the technology is modern, the underlying mechanism isn’t novel at all. What we’re witnessing today is merely the latest evolution of an age-old human behavior: speculation.
This concept—the act of imagining, projecting, and betting on possible futures—has shaped economies, societies, and even scientific progress for centuries. In my book, Speculation: A Cultural History from Aristotle to AI, I explore how this powerful cognitive and economic tool has evolved from philosophical contemplation to digital trading algorithms.
The Rise of "Air-Money" in the 1700s
Long before blockchain and decentralized finance, England experienced its own speculative revolution in the early 18th century. Daniel Defoe, best known for Robinson Crusoe, coined the term "air-money" to describe a new form of wealth creation—one not rooted in land, gold, or tangible assets, but in the volatile values of stocks and shares. Inspired by Amsterdam’s booming financial markets of the late 1600s, a new class of investors emerged who built fortunes on promises, opinions, and collective belief rather than physical property.
This shift marked a turning point: value became untethered from material reality. The infamous South Sea Bubble of 1720 stands as a cautionary tale—a moment when investor enthusiasm inflated stock prices to unsustainable levels, only for them to collapse overnight. Sound familiar? Today’s crypto markets react with similar volatility to a single tweet or celebrity endorsement.
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The core driver behind both historical and modern speculation remains unchanged: shared imagination. If enough people believe something has value—be it tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland or NFTs in 2025—it does, until they don’t. As a character in Tom McCarthy’s novel Remainder observes, we are constantly “imagining futures” together. Whether through stock valuations, climate predictions, or startup investments, speculation is the invisible engine driving much of modern life.
From Philosophy to Finance: The Evolution of Speculatio
The roots of speculation stretch back over a millennium. Around 500 CE, the philosopher Boethius used the Latin term speculatio to describe a high form of contemplative thought—an intellectual gaze toward divine truths. Drawing from Aristotle and early Christian theology, he saw speculation as a noble pursuit of knowledge, far removed from gambling or greed.
Fast forward several centuries, and the meaning transformed dramatically. By the mid-1700s, “speculation” had migrated from philosophy into economics. It was Adam Smith—who else?—who helped cement its modern financial connotation, framing it as risky, uncertain investment behavior. But prior to that shift, speculation had already traveled through shadowy realms: smuggling operations, lottery schemes, and underground betting rings.
Even more telling is how cultural biases shaped its perception. In the 1600s, Calvinist thinkers dismissed speculative thinking as “idle speculation”—mental activity detached from moral purpose or productive labor. Later, during periods of market frenzy, physicians like Benjamin Rush began diagnosing speculation as a kind of psychological mania, linking it to emotional instability and societal decay.
Yet throughout history, speculation also offered unexpected opportunities—especially for women. In an era when direct economic power was largely denied to them, some women leveraged speculative markets (and literary fiction) to assert autonomy. As investors and novelists alike, they engaged in speculative acts that challenged rigid gender roles and capitalist norms.
Why Do We Still Speculate?
Given the risks—market crashes, financial ruin, reputational damage—why do humans continue to speculate?
First, because information is always incomplete. No amount of data analytics or AI modeling can fully predict black swan events, geopolitical shifts, or consumer sentiment swings. In this uncertainty, speculation fills the gap. We buy insurance (once legally termed “speculations”), invest in retirement funds, and debate future societal models—all forms of forward projection.
Second, speculation fuels innovation. Venture capital? Speculative. Space exploration startups? Highly speculative. Even scientific hypotheses are forms of educated guesswork about what might be true. Francis Bacon wrestled with this tension in the 1600s, questioning whether pure speculation could coexist with empirical experimentation during the dawn of the scientific revolution.
And now, computers have become our primary speculative instruments. Algorithms analyze vast datasets to forecast trends, execute trades in milliseconds, and simulate economic outcomes. They’ve replaced prophets and astrologers—but the goal remains the same: to harness the intangible currents of the present and glimpse tomorrow.
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Speculation as Resistance
Ironically, a concept long associated with greed and inequality is now being reclaimed by activists and marginalized communities. Speculative fiction, for example—seen in works by Octavia Butler or N.K. Jemisin—uses imagined futures to critique current systems of oppression. Similarly, movements advocating for climate justice or economic equity engage in what might be called emancipatory speculation: envisioning alternative worlds where current injustices don’t exist.
This duality reflects speculation’s core nature: it is neither inherently good nor bad. It is a tool—one that can inflate bubbles or inspire revolutions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is cryptocurrency speculation different from historical forms?
A: While the technology is new, the psychology isn’t. Just as investors once bet on South Sea Company shares based on hype and hope, today’s crypto traders respond to narratives, influencers, and perceived scarcity.
Q: Can speculation ever be ethical?
A: Yes. When used to fund innovation, hedge risk, or imagine just futures, speculation serves productive purposes. The ethics depend on transparency, impact, and intent.
Q: How does AI change modern speculation?
A: AI accelerates decision-making and pattern recognition but doesn’t eliminate bias or error. It amplifies both opportunities and risks in financial and social forecasting.
Q: Was speculation always seen negatively?
A: Not originally. Before the 1700s, it was a philosophical ideal. Its negative associations emerged alongside industrial capitalism and fears of uncontrolled markets.
Q: Are there safe ways to speculate?
A: Diversification, research, and setting limits help manage risk. Treating speculation as part of a broader strategy—not a get-rich-quick scheme—is key.
Q: Why do people keep speculating despite crashes?
A: Because speculation isn’t just about profit—it’s about participation in shaping what comes next. Humans are wired to imagine alternatives, especially when the present feels unstable.
Ultimately, speculation is more than an economic activity—it’s a fundamental way we navigate uncertainty and assert agency over an unpredictable world. From ancient philosophy to decentralized digital currencies, we continue to project our hopes, fears, and dreams into the future.
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Whether you're investing in blockchain assets or simply planning your career path five years out, you're engaging in speculation. And understanding its deep cultural roots helps us do it more thoughtfully—aware of both its dangers and its transformative potential.
Core Keywords: cryptocurrency, speculation, Bitcoin, Ethereum, future imagining, financial history, digital assets