XRP ETF Approval Odds Reach 98% on Polymarket Despite SEC Delays

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On June 3, the likelihood of an XRP (XRP) exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving regulatory approval by the end of 2025 surged to a record high of 98% on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket. This dramatic spike reflects growing investor confidence in XRP’s long-term integration into mainstream financial markets—even amid ongoing delays from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

While recent postponements in decision timelines for spot XRP ETF applications have created short-term uncertainty, market sentiment remains strongly bullish over the medium to long term. Investors and analysts alike are increasingly aligning around a potential Q4 2025 approval window, driven by regulatory precedents, institutional interest, and evolving market infrastructure.

Why Is an XRP ETF Likely by Late 2025?

In April 2025, the SEC delayed its ruling on Franklin Templeton’s application for a spot XRP ETF, pushing the final review deadline to June 17. Similarly, in late May, 21Shares’ bid for an XRP ETF faced a comparable delay. These developments briefly dampened market enthusiasm, with Polymarket’s odds of approval by July 2025 dropping as low as 19%.

However, this pessimism proved short-lived. By early June, optimism rebounded sharply. As of this writing, the probability of an XRP ETF being approved by December 31, 2025, stands at 93%, having briefly touched 98%—a historic peak.

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This rebound suggests that market participants expect a favorable outcome later this year, likely coinciding with the SEC’s final decision deadlines. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart previously noted that while early approvals are unlikely before late June or early July, Q4 2025 remains the most probable timeframe for a final verdict.

“If we’re gonna see early approvals from the SEC on any of these assets — I wouldn’t expect to see them until late June or early July at absolute earliest. More likely to be in early 4Q,” Seyffart stated on X.

Regulatory Progress and Market Infrastructure

One of the most significant catalysts behind rising approval odds is the launch of regulated XRP futures contracts on May 19, 2025. These futures are traded under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), adding a critical layer of regulatory legitimacy.

According to Dean Chen, market analyst at Bitunix, the presence of a mature and regulated futures market addresses one of the SEC’s primary concerns in past rejections:

“A key reason for past ETF rejections by the US SEC has been the absence of a regulated and mature futures market. If the futures are regulated by the CFTC and exhibit strong price linkage with the spot market, this would increase market transparency and strengthen the case for ETF approval.”

The introduction of futures not only enhances price discovery but also reduces manipulation risks—two factors the SEC consistently emphasizes when evaluating crypto-based financial products.

Institutional Demand Driving ETF Filings

XRP now leads all altcoins in the number of active spot ETF filings. A broad coalition of major financial institutions has submitted proposals to the SEC, signaling deep institutional confidence in XRP’s compliance and market stability.

Firms involved include:

These asset managers collectively oversee billions in assets and represent a cross-section of traditional finance embracing digital assets. Their coordinated efforts underscore a belief that XRP is nearing regulatory clarity, especially following Ripple’s partial legal victory against the SEC in 2023, which distinguished XRP from securities when sold to retail investors.

This wave of filings mirrors the buildup seen before the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs—precedents that now shape expectations for XRP.

Impact on XRP Price and Market Sentiment

Market anticipation has already begun influencing XRP’s price trajectory. From May 14 to May 31, XRP declined by 23.08%, reflecting investor caution amid regulatory uncertainty.

However, starting June 1, sentiment shifted. XRP entered a recovery phase, regaining 10% of its losses within days. At the time of writing, XRP trades at $2.20, up 1.8% over the past 24 hours—a rebound closely tied to renewed optimism around ETF prospects.

This pattern aligns with historical behavior: crypto assets often dip during regulatory suspense but rally when clarity emerges or appears imminent.

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Core Keywords Driving Search Intent

To ensure alignment with user search behavior and SEO best practices, key terms naturally integrated throughout this article include:

These keywords reflect high-volume queries from investors seeking updates on regulatory progress, price implications, and investment opportunities tied to potential ETF launches.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is causing the surge in XRP ETF approval odds on Polymarket?
A: The rise is driven by increasing confidence in Q4 2025 as the likely approval window, supported by new regulated futures markets, strong institutional backing, and precedent from previous crypto ETF approvals.

Q: Has the SEC approved any XRP ETF yet?
A: No. The SEC has not yet approved a spot XRP ETF. All decisions remain pending, with final rulings expected between June and October 2025.

Q: Why are futures important for ETF approval?
A: Regulated futures provide price transparency, reduce manipulation risks, and demonstrate market maturity—key criteria the SEC evaluates before approving spot ETFs.

Q: Which companies have filed for an XRP ETF?
A: Major filers include Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Bitwise, WisdomTree, ProShares, and several others managing significant assets under management.

Q: How did XRP perform after the futures launch?
A: After a brief downturn in May, XRP rebounded in June, gaining 10% as investor confidence returned following the CFTC-regulated futures launch.

Q: Could an XRP ETF be approved before July 2025?
A: Unlikely. Analysts suggest that even if reviews accelerate, October 2025 is the most realistic timeline for a final decision.

Final Outlook: A Pivotal Year for XRP

The convergence of regulatory developments, institutional participation, and market infrastructure improvements positions 2025 as a pivotal year for XRP. While short-term delays test investor patience, they do not diminish long-term expectations.

With 98% odds on Polymarket, a growing number of experts believe that an XRP ETF will not only be approved but could become one of the most significant crypto financial products launched this year—opening doors for broader adoption across pension funds, retail platforms, and global investment portfolios.

As precedent shows, once the SEC greenlights a major crypto ETF, inflows follow rapidly. For XRP holders and digital asset investors, Q4 2025 could mark the beginning of a new era.

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