The recent pullback in Bitcoin’s price has triggered widespread debate among market analysts about the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory. While some declare the bull market over, others insist the real uptrend hasn’t even begun. At the heart of this discussion are two prominent voices: PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, and Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. Their contrasting views offer valuable insights into Bitcoin’s current market dynamics and what may lie ahead.
PlanB: No Real Bull Market Yet — So Where’s the Bear Market?
Bitcoin analyst PlanB has pushed back against growing bearish sentiment, arguing that claims of an incoming bear market are premature. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), he emphasized that Bitcoin’s 200-week arithmetic and geometric means have remained closely aligned for over a year — a sign of reduced volatility and sustained upward momentum.
“Some are calling the bear market. I don’t agree. The fact that Bitcoin’s 200-week arithmetic and geometric means have been close together for over a year indicates reduced volatility and steady sustained uptrend, doubling from $20k to $40k in 2023 and from $40k to $80k in 2024.”
This consistent growth pattern suggests that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class. Rather than experiencing wild cycles of boom and bust, it may now be entering a phase of more predictable appreciation. If this trend continues, PlanB projects Bitcoin could reach $160,000 in 2025, $320,000 in 2026, and potentially $640,000 by 2027.
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A key point in PlanB’s argument is that a true bear market typically follows a pronounced bull run — one marked by euphoria, mass adoption, and extreme valuations. By his assessment, such conditions haven’t materialized yet. There hasn’t been widespread retail FOMO, media frenzy, or speculative mania — all hallmarks of a mature bull cycle.
When questioned about whether his famous Stock-to-Flow model has lost relevance, PlanB defended its validity. He noted that if Bitcoin maintains its current trajectory, the average price over the next few years could settle around $300,000 — well within the S2F model’s projected range of $250,000 to $1 million.
This suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, long-term fundamentals remain intact. The gradual adoption of Bitcoin through institutional channels — including spot ETFs — may be smoothing out traditional four-year boom-bust cycles.
CryptoQuant Founder: Bull Cycle Over, Bear or Sideways Phase Ahead
In contrast to PlanB’s optimism, Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, believes the Bitcoin bull cycle has ended. In a widely shared tweet, he stated:
“#Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
His outlook is based on a comprehensive analysis of on-chain metrics such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss). Using principal component analysis (PCA) on these indicators, along with 365-day moving averages, Ki Young Ju identifies signs of weakening market momentum.
Key observations include:
- Declining liquidity and capital inflows into the market.
- Failure to break above key resistance levels despite high trading volume near $100,000.
- Three consecutive weeks of outflows from U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs, erasing nearly all year-to-date gains in net inflows.
These signals suggest that new money is no longer driving price increases. Instead, early investors and large holders (often referred to as "whales") may be taking profits at higher price levels, contributing to downward pressure.
Addressing Common Counterarguments
Ki Young Ju addressed several counterpoints raised by bullish analysts:
Are retail investors still entering the market?
Yes — but increasingly through Bitcoin ETFs rather than direct on-chain purchases. Approximately 80% of ETF inflows come from retail investors. However, since these transactions don’t appear on the blockchain, traditional on-chain metrics may underestimate retail participation.
Have macroeconomic factors been overlooked?
Not necessarily. On-chain activity tends to lead market sentiment. If macro conditions were truly supportive — such as falling inflation or rate cuts — fresh capital would likely already be flowing in. For now, uncertainty prevails.
Why not short Bitcoin?
Ki Young Ju clarified he isn’t predicting a crash. A 70% drawdown isn't expected; instead, he anticipates a prolonged consolidation phase. He continues to hold Bitcoin long-term but expects limited upside in the near term.
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Understanding the Divergence: What’s Driving These Conflicting Views?
The clash between PlanB and Ki Young Ju reflects deeper shifts in how Bitcoin is analyzed and valued.
PlanB focuses on long-term structural trends — scarcity, adoption curves, and monetary policy — viewing price movements through the lens of asset maturity. His perspective aligns with the idea that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a global reserve store of value.
Ki Young Ju, meanwhile, relies heavily on real-time on-chain data and investor behavior. His methodology captures shifts in market psychology and capital flows — often providing early warnings of trend reversals.
Both approaches have merit. The challenge for investors lies in reconciling macro-level narratives with micro-level data.
FAQ: Addressing Key Investor Questions
Q: Can both analysts be right at the same time?
A: Yes — they’re analyzing different timeframes. PlanB looks at multi-year cycles driven by supply scarcity and adoption. Ki Young Ju examines shorter-term investor behavior and capital flows. A period of sideways movement doesn’t invalidate long-term bullishness.
Q: Is the Bitcoin halving cycle still relevant?
A: Historically yes — each halving has preceded a major bull run. However, with increasing institutional involvement and ETFs absorbing supply, future cycles may be less explosive and more gradual.
Q: What should investors do during uncertain phases like this?
A: Focus on risk management. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA), portfolio diversification, and avoiding leverage can help navigate volatility without missing long-term gains.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics like MVRV and SOPR?
A: They’re highly informative when used correctly. These indicators reflect whether investors are in profit or loss, helping identify potential tops and bottoms. But they work best when combined with other analysis methods.
Q: Could ETFs change Bitcoin’s price behavior permanently?
A: Possibly. ETFs introduce regulated, institutional-grade access to Bitcoin, which can dampen volatility and extend accumulation periods. This may result in smoother, longer-term uptrends instead of sharp rallies followed by deep corrections.
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Final Outlook: Patience Amid Uncertainty
The divergence between PlanB and Ki Young Ju underscores a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s evolution. One sees a maturing asset entering a new era of steady appreciation; the other sees exhaustion after a major rally, with consolidation ahead.
What’s clear is that Bitcoin’s market structure is changing. Institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic forces are now as influential as technical patterns or on-chain signals.
For investors, the takeaway is simple: avoid binary thinking. Markets don’t move in straight lines — corrections are normal, and consolidation doesn’t mean failure.
Whether Bitcoin is entering a bear market or merely pausing before its next leg up remains to be seen. But one thing is certain — those who understand both the data and the bigger picture will be best positioned to thrive.
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