Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading just below the psychologically significant $108,000 mark, currently hovering around **$107,783, as market participants weigh technical momentum against shifting institutional sentiment. After rebounding from June lows near $98,240**, BTC formed a double bottom at **$105,130, sparking a sharp recovery fueled by a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. While short-term structure remains constructive, resistance at $108,800** and **$110,587** continues to cap gains—levels that have repelled multiple breakout attempts.
The recent price consolidation reflects growing indecision. Intraday range has narrowed to between $105,402 and $107,727, suggesting a coiled spring ready for a directional move. With 24-hour trading volume at $27.94 billion, liquidity remains healthy, but momentum lacks conviction. Technical indicators echo this mixed signal: RSI at 56 shows neutrality, Stochastic at 82 hints at overbought conditions, and CCI at 62 suggests moderate bullish pressure. The ADX value of 13 confirms weak trend strength, while MACD at 567 and momentum indicators point to underlying bullish bias—pending breakout confirmation.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: A Narrow Battle Zone Takes Shape
On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin has climbed in a stair-step pattern from $105,130 to $107,819, forming a potential bull flag—a classic continuation pattern. This setup implies a near-term test of $108,500** if volume sustains the move. However, overbought readings suggest a pullback to **$106,800–$107,000 may be needed to revalidate support before another push higher.
The 4-hour timeframe reveals a more decisive structure: a confirmed double bottom breakout from $105,130**, reinforcing bullish momentum. Yet the critical resistance at **$108,800 remains unbroken. A failure here could trigger leveraged long liquidations, pulling price back toward the low $105,000s—a scenario increasingly likely if volume dries up.
Meanwhile, the daily chart maintains a broader bullish outlook if BTC clears $108,500–$109,000 with strong volume. A decisive close above this zone could accelerate gains toward $111,980**, Bitcoin’s May 22 all-time high. Conversely, rejection would shift risk toward **$104,305, where the 50-day EMA offers soft support. A break below that level brings the $100,000 psychological floor back into focus.
ETF Outflows Signal Shift in Institutional Sentiment
A notable reversal occurred this week when U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $342.2 million in net outflows**, ending a **15-day streak of inflows** that began on June 9. Major contributors included **Fidelity's FBTC (-$172.7M), Grayscale's GBTC (-$119.5M)**, **ARKB (-$27M), and Bitwise's BITB (-$23M).
This outflow wave reflects a defensive shift amid rising macro uncertainty. Traders are bracing for key U.S. policy events: the upcoming vote on Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the expiration of the July 9 tariff pause. These catalysts introduce headline risk that many institutional players are avoiding via leveraged exposure.
Supporting this cautionary stance, leveraged ETF volumes have declined, with two consecutive days of outflows and “muted participation,” according to K33 Research. Derivatives markets also show cooling appetite: annualized BTC futures premiums on Binance fell to 3.9%, a 21-month low, while CME BTC futures dipped to 6.5%, indicating reduced institutional demand in forward-looking contracts.
Institutional Demand Diverges: ETFs Retreat While Spot Accumulation Continues
Despite ETF outflows, underlying institutional demand remains resilient. The Coinbase Premium Index—a gauge of U.S.-regulated spot buying—has stayed positive for 73 consecutive days, signaling persistent real-money accumulation.
Key players continue expanding their BTC holdings. BlackRock’s IBIT now represents 55% of all U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets, underscoring its dominance in the ecosystem. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR) added another **4,980 BTC ($531.2 million)**, bringing its total stash to **597,325 BTC**—worth over $64 billion at current prices.
This trend is spreading beyond Wall Street giants. The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has nearly doubled in the past six months, reflecting growing acceptance of BTC as a treasury reserve asset. As regulatory clarity improves and liquidity normalizes post-halving, this structural accumulation could drive a supply squeeze—especially with miner output declining.
Miner Metrics Show Mixed Signals Amid Hashrate Dip
Bitcoin miners earned $2.0 billion in revenue during Q1 2025, maintaining healthy gross margins of 53%, according to JPMorgan. Companies like MARA Holdings (MARA) led in production volume, while IREN (IREN) reported record gross profits—highlighting operational strength despite price stagnation.
However, the network’s monthly average hashrate declined by 3% in June, suggesting a temporary slowdown in mining activity. Some analysts interpret this as a short-term bearish signal, potentially indicating operational pullbacks due to margin compression or seasonal energy costs.
Hashrate contraction—combined with tepid futures premiums and ETF outflows—paints a picture of cooling enthusiasm at the margins. Yet it may also reflect natural post-halving adjustment rather than systemic weakness.
Macro Tailwinds Support Long-Term Bull Case
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which briefly pushed Bitcoin below $99,000**, have subsided. Since then, BTC has rallied over **8%**, briefly reclaiming **$108,000 before settling into its current consolidation.
Markets now pivot toward the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. A softer-than-expected print could boost expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, fueling risk-on sentiment across digital assets.
Historical patterns support optimism: Bitwise analysis shows Bitcoin averages a +31% return within 50 days following major geopolitical or macro shocks. If history repeats, a move toward $136,000+** in Q3 is plausible. Firms like **Bernstein** and **Standard Chartered** project a base case of **$200,000 by end-2025, driven by scarcity, halving dynamics, and sustained institutional inflows.
Technical Outlook: Break $108.8K or Risk Deeper Pullback
All key moving averages align bullishly:
- EMA-10: $106,692
- EMA-50: $104,351
- SMA-200: $96,314
With RSI at 55 and MACD trending upward on lower timeframes, momentum favors bulls—but only if $108,800–$109,000 is cleared convincingly.
A confirmed 4-hour close above $109K** would open the path to **$111,980 (ATH) and potentially $120,000**. Conversely, rejection on weak volume could trigger a drop to **$105,333, with failure there risking a test of $104K–$100K, especially if ETF outflows resume.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is $108,800 such a critical resistance level for Bitcoin?
A: $108,800 has repeatedly acted as a ceiling over recent weeks. Multiple failed breakout attempts have created a technical barrier where traders place sell orders and take-profit levels. Clearing it with volume would signal renewed bullish control.
Q: Do ETF outflows mean institutions are losing faith in Bitcoin?
A: Not necessarily. While outflows reflect short-term risk-off behavior due to macro uncertainty, underlying spot demand—measured by Coinbase Premium and corporate accumulation—remains strong. This suggests strategic buying continues beneath the surface.
Q: Can Bitcoin still reach $200K by end-2025 despite current hesitation?
A: Yes. Analysts from Bernstein and Standard Chartered maintain this target based on long-term fundamentals: post-halving supply shock, growing institutional adoption, and potential Fed rate cuts boosting liquidity.
Q: What does the drop in hashrate mean for Bitcoin’s security?
A: A 3% monthly decline isn’t alarming in isolation—it may reflect seasonal maintenance or energy cost fluctuations. Long-term network security remains robust as long as hashpower stabilizes post-adjustment.
Q: How might the U.S. jobs report impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: A weak Nonfarm Payrolls number could increase odds of a Fed rate cut, weakening the dollar and boosting risk assets like BTC. Strong job data may delay easing plans and pressure crypto markets short-term.
Q: Is the double bottom formation reliable for predicting future moves?
A: Yes—double bottoms are widely respected reversal patterns when confirmed with volume. BTC’s bounce from $105,130 fits this model and supports further upside if resistance breaks.