Amid growing volatility and downward pressure in the cryptocurrency market, a new Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction has sparked concern among investors. According to a recent report by 10x Research, a digital asset investment firm, Bitcoin’s value could fall to $45,000 in the coming weeks. This forecast comes as on-chain data, macroeconomic trends, and investor behavior point toward a potential market correction.
Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, outlines several key factors that support this bearish outlook. By analyzing network activity, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and broader economic indicators, the report suggests that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle top. BeInCrypto further validates these insights with an in-depth look at critical on-chain metrics and technical analysis.
Why Is Bitcoin Facing Downward Pressure?
Bitcoin is currently trading below $55,000, a significant drop from its all-time high of $73,750 reached in March 2025. While price corrections are common in volatile markets, the scale and speed of this decline have raised red flags. According to 10x Research, the drop was anticipated due to weakening network engagement and shifting holder behavior.
One of the most telling signs is the decline in Bitcoin’s active addresses. The report notes that active addresses peaked in November 2023 and began a sharp decline after Q1 2024. This metric measures the number of unique addresses involved in transactions over a given period—essentially reflecting user participation on the network.
In November 2023, active addresses totaled around 1.20 million. By March 2025, the number was still above 1 million, indicating sustained interest. However, recent data shows a steep drop to just 612,000 active addresses. This represents a nearly 50% decrease in network activity, signaling that hundreds of thousands of users have disengaged from the ecosystem.
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Such a dramatic reduction in activity often precedes price downturns, as fewer participants mean reduced demand and lower liquidity. When combined with other bearish indicators, this trend strengthens the case for further downside movement.
ETF Outflows and Macroeconomic Headwinds
Another critical factor contributing to Bitcoin’s downward trajectory is the recent outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs. Over the past week alone, more than $1 billion exited these funds—a clear sign of institutional and retail investor caution. Large-scale ETF outflows typically reflect profit-taking or loss-cutting behavior, especially during periods of uncertainty.
Additionally, macroeconomic conditions in the United States are adding pressure. Weak job data, elevated inflation concerns, and shifting Federal Reserve policies have created an unfavorable environment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. As traditional markets react to economic slowdown signals, capital tends to move away from speculative investments.
The cryptocurrency derivatives market also reflects growing pessimism. Massive liquidations in Bitcoin futures contracts—particularly long positions—have exacerbated price swings. When leveraged traders are forced to exit positions due to margin calls, it triggers cascading sell-offs that accelerate declines.
Mayer Multiple Signals Caution
Technical indicators further support the bearish thesis. The Mayer Multiple, a widely followed metric used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in Bitcoin, currently stands at 0.8. This value is below the key threshold of 1.0, which historically indicates that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term average and may be in a correction phase.
When the Mayer Multiple exceeds 1.0, it often signals strong bullish momentum and speculative enthusiasm. Conversely, readings below 1.0 suggest reduced market confidence and increased vulnerability to further drops. At 0.8, Bitcoin remains in cautionary territory.
Moreover, BTC’s price is currently trading below its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a major technical support level watched by traders worldwide. This reinforces the idea that the short-term trend is bearish and increases the likelihood of testing lower support zones.
Key Support Levels: $50,000 and Below
From a technical analysis perspective, the $50,000 level is proving crucial. On the weekly BTC/USD chart, price action resembles patterns seen just before the 2022 bear market began. In late 2021, Bitcoin failed to hold above $50,000 and subsequently dropped to $36,500 by early 2022.
Today, history may be repeating itself. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim and sustainably break above $50,000, it could retest previous lows. Initial downside targets include $48,338, with a stronger drop potentially pushing prices toward $45,000—or even lower if selling pressure intensifies.
However, a reversal is possible if bullish momentum returns. Should the Mayer Multiple rise above 1.0 again and volume pick up across exchanges, it could signal the start of a new uptrend. In such a scenario, Bitcoin might reclaim its all-time high and continue its long-term growth trajectory.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What causes Bitcoin’s price to drop suddenly?
A: Sudden drops are often triggered by a combination of factors including large sell-offs, ETF outflows, macroeconomic news, futures liquidations, and declining network activity like fewer active addresses.
Q: Is $45,000 a likely target for Bitcoin?
A: Based on current technical levels and on-chain data, $45,000 is a plausible downside target if support at $50,000 fails and selling pressure continues.
Q: How reliable is the Mayer Multiple for predicting BTC price movements?
A: The Mayer Multiple is a valuable tool for identifying overvalued or undervalued conditions relative to Bitcoin’s historical average. While not foolproof, it provides useful context when combined with other indicators.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover if it drops below $50,000?
A: Yes. Historically, Bitcoin has recovered from similar corrections. A resurgence in investor interest, positive macro developments, or increased adoption could reignite bullish momentum.
Q: What does a decline in active addresses mean for Bitcoin?
A: Fewer active addresses suggest reduced transactional activity and waning short-term interest. It often correlates with market consolidation or bearish phases but doesn’t negate long-term fundamentals.
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin if the price approaches $45,000?
A: Investment decisions should be based on personal risk tolerance and research. Dips have historically presented buying opportunities for long-term holders, but timing the market carries risks.
Final Outlook: Caution Amid Uncertainty
While Bitcoin remains a foundational asset in the digital economy, current signals point toward continued volatility and potential downside risk. With active addresses shrinking, ETF outflows mounting, and technical indicators flashing caution, a drop toward $45,000 appears increasingly plausible.
That said, market cycles are inherently dynamic. Corrections are natural after extended rallies and can create opportunities for strategic entry points. Investors are advised to monitor key levels closely—especially $50,000—and consider diversifying their approach based on evolving conditions.
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Ultimately, while short-term pain may be inevitable, Bitcoin’s long-term resilience has been proven time and again. Whether this dip marks a temporary setback or the start of a deeper correction will depend on how quickly sentiment shifts and whether macro forces stabilize in favor of risk assets.
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