XRP Price Prediction as RLUSD Stablecoin Nears $500M Milestone

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The XRP price has shown resilience, rebounding from a key support level amid broader crypto market recovery and growing momentum behind Ripple’s native stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD). On Wednesday, XRP surged to $2.20—marking a 15.7% recovery from its weekly low—fueling renewed investor interest and speculation about its near-term trajectory.

RLUSD Stablecoin Gains Momentum Toward $500M Market Cap

One of the primary catalysts behind XRP’s recent rebound is the rapid adoption of RLUSD, Ripple’s U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin launched in December 2024. According to CoinMarketCap, RLUSD’s market capitalization has climbed to over $428 million and is on track to potentially hit the $500 million milestone by July 2025.

This growth reflects increasing confidence in Ripple’s expanding ecosystem. Data from Artemis reveals that RLUSD’s adjusted trading volume increased by 57% over the past 30 days, while the number of unique wallet addresses holding the stablecoin rose by 34%. These metrics signal strong organic demand and user engagement.

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The rise of RLUSD positions Ripple to better compete with dominant players like Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDT. In a high-interest-rate environment, stablecoins generate yield through treasury-backed assets, making them critical revenue streams. A successful RLUSD could significantly boost Ripple’s financial standing and strengthen its integration across global payment networks.

However, a major structural challenge remains: most RLUSD流通 is not on the XRP Ledger. Over 84% of circulating RLUSD tokens operate on Ethereum, with only a small fraction deployed on the XRP Ledger itself. This limits direct benefits to the native blockchain and raises concerns about ecosystem cohesion.

Challenges Facing the XRP Ledger Ecosystem

Despite RLUSD’s growing popularity, the underlying XRP Ledger continues to face adoption hurdles. Developer activity has remained sluggish, and total value locked (TVL) across XRP-based decentralized applications dropped by 4.7% in the last month to just $59 million.

In comparison, competing Layer 1 chains like Unichain report TVL figures exceeding $350 million. The XRP Ledger’s total stablecoin supply stands at only $71 million—significantly lower than other blockchains fostering DeFi innovation.

This disparity highlights a critical gap: while Ripple excels in cross-border payments and institutional partnerships, it has yet to create a compelling developer experience for building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications or Web3 tools on its own ledger.

A more vibrant on-chain ecosystem would not only increase utility for XRP but also enhance security, decentralization, and long-term sustainability. Without stronger incentives for developers and dApp creators, much of RLUSD’s success may continue benefiting external networks like Ethereum rather than reinforcing the XRP Ledger’s position.

Rising Transaction Volume Signals Growing Network Activity

Amid these challenges, there are positive signs of increased usage on the XRP network. Recent data shows a notable uptick in transaction volume, with over 2 million transactions processed on Wednesday alone—a significant jump from the monthly low of 1 million earlier in June.

Higher transaction frequency suggests growing real-world use, whether for payments, token transfers, or micropayments via RippleNet. Increased activity can also attract arbitrageurs and liquidity providers, further strengthening network effects.

This surge aligns with Ripple’s ongoing efforts to expand partnerships with financial institutions and payment providers worldwide. As global remittance demand rises—especially in emerging markets—XRP’s low-cost, fast settlement capabilities become increasingly valuable.

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XRP Price Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

From a technical perspective, XRP remains in a corrective phase following its January peak of $3.40. Despite favorable developments—including the resolution of the SEC lawsuit and multiple ETF filings—the price has trended downward due to broader macroeconomic pressures and profit-taking.

Currently, XRP is consolidating near key moving averages: the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). It also hovers around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential stabilization zone.

More importantly, the price recently tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.9137—the lower boundary of a descending triangle pattern often associated with bearish sentiment. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, with the next major support projected at $1.6137 (April 7 swing low).

Conversely, a sustained move above the descending trendline connecting the highest resistance points since January would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a potential reversal. Bulls will need to push prices above $2.50 to regain strong momentum.

Key Technical Levels:

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is RLUSD and how does it differ from other stablecoins?
A: RLUSD (Ripple USD) is a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by Ripple. Unlike USDT or USDC, it was designed to work across multiple blockchains but currently sees most usage on Ethereum despite being native to the XRP Ledger.

Q: Why isn’t RLUSD primarily used on the XRP Ledger?
A: While RLUSD was built with cross-chain functionality, limited DeFi infrastructure and lower liquidity on the XRP Ledger have driven most usage to Ethereum, which offers deeper markets and more integrations.

Q: Is XRP bullish or bearish in the short term?
A: Currently neutral-to-bearish. XRP is trapped in a descending triangle pattern and must break above $2.50 to confirm bullish momentum. Until then, downside risks persist toward $1.61 if support fails.

Q: How could RLUSD reaching $500M impact XRP price?
A: Increased adoption of RLUSD may indirectly benefit XRP by strengthening Ripple’s ecosystem and revenue potential, especially if future integrations bring more activity back to the XRP Ledger.

Q: What factors influence XRP’s price beyond technicals?
A: Regulatory clarity (e.g., SEC case outcome), institutional adoption, global payment partnerships, ETF developments, and macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates all play crucial roles.

Q: Can XRP recover to its all-time high?
A: Long-term recovery depends on broader market sentiment, increased utility for XRP in payments and DeFi, and successful scaling of Ripple’s product suite—including On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) and CBDC solutions.

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Final Outlook

As RLUSD approaches a $500 million market cap, its success underscores Ripple’s strategic expansion into the stablecoin arena—a space dominated by USDT and USDC. While most RLUSD activity occurs off-ledger today, continued investment in developer tools and DeFi incentives could gradually shift momentum back toward the XRP Ledger.

For investors, monitoring both on-chain metrics and macro developments will be essential. The current technical setup suggests caution, but a breakout above key resistance could reignite bullish momentum.

Ultimately, XRP’s long-term viability hinges not just on price performance but on building a robust, self-sustaining ecosystem where innovation thrives—and where RLUSD becomes a gateway rather than an export.