Hedera (HBAR) has shown signs of resilience after bouncing from recent lows, yet the broader price structure remains under pressure. Following a brief recovery from the $0.128–$0.130 support zone in late June, HBAR failed to sustain upward momentum and remains confined below critical resistance levels. The token continues to trade beneath the descending trendline and the 200-period moving average—key indicators of ongoing bearish dominance.
As July unfolds, investors are closely watching whether HBAR can break out of its current range or if further downside lies ahead. This analysis dives into HBAR’s recent performance, technical outlook, and potential price movements for the coming month.
HBAR Performance in June: A Month of Missed Opportunities
HBAR began June trading above $0.165 but quickly entered a downward spiral. By mid-month, prices had dropped to around $0.130—the lowest level in months—reflecting weak market sentiment and lack of buying conviction.
A temporary rebound emerged from the $0.128–$0.130 demand zone, sparking cautious optimism among bulls. However, this rally stalled near $0.152, a well-established resistance level. Despite brief volatility, HBAR failed to generate sustained momentum, closing the month with a loss of approximately 10–15%.
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Trading activity remained largely confined between $0.130 and $0.150 throughout June. Notably, even as broader crypto markets showed signs of recovery, HBAR lagged behind other altcoins, suggesting a relative weakness in investor interest or confidence.
Technical Analysis: Is a Reversal on the Horizon?
On the 4-hour chart, the bearish trend remains firmly in control. At the time of writing, HBAR is trading below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently hovering near $0.159. This level acts as dynamic resistance, capping any attempted rallies.
The most recent breakout attempt above $0.152 was swiftly rejected at the falling trendline, reinforcing seller dominance. Price action now shows signs of indecision—characterized by small-bodied candles and long upper wicks—indicating that buyers are struggling to gain control.
Key support levels to watch:
- Immediate support: $0.144–$0.145
- Stronger support: $0.130
A breakdown below $0.144 could trigger renewed selling pressure, potentially pushing prices back toward $0.125–$0.120. Conversely, a decisive close above $0.152 might open the door for a retest of the 200 SMA and beyond.
Monthly Technical Indicators: Confirming Bearish Momentum
Monthly indicators paint a clear picture of sustained downward pressure:
- ADX(14): 41.49 — Indicates a strong bearish trend.
- CCI(14): -94.59 — Reflects bearish momentum, approaching oversold territory.
- Ultimate Oscillator: 40.09 — Suggests weak buying pressure with a bearish bias.
- Rate of Change (ROC): 0.302 — Shows minimal upward movement, possibly due to the short-term bounce.
- Bull/Bear Power (13): -0.002 — Slight bearish dominance.
While the ROC offers a mildly positive signal, all other metrics align with continued bearish control. This suggests that unless significant buying volume returns, HBAR may struggle to initiate a sustainable reversal.
HBAR Price Forecast for July: Two Possible Scenarios
With current momentum favoring sellers, two distinct paths could unfold for HBAR in July.
Bearish Scenario: Return to Key Support
If HBAR fails to defend the $0.144–$0.145 support zone, a decline toward $0.130 becomes increasingly likely. A break below that level could accelerate selling, targeting $0.120–$0.125. Given the lack of strong volume on recent rallies and persistent overhead resistance, this scenario appears more probable in the short term.
Bullish Scenario: Breakout Above Resistance
A breakout above $0.152—with follow-through momentum—could shift sentiment. Successfully reclaiming the 200 SMA at $0.159 would be a bullish confirmation signal, potentially unlocking gains toward $0.165–$0.170.
However, such a move requires strong buying interest and improved market conditions. Until then, upside potential remains limited.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the immediate resistance level for HBAR?
A: The key resistance is at $0.152, followed by the 200-period SMA near $0.159. A close above these levels is needed for bullish confirmation.
Q: What happens if HBAR drops below $0.144?
A: A breakdown below $0.144 could lead to further downside toward $0.130 or even $0.125, especially if selling volume increases.
Q: Is HBAR oversold according to technical indicators?
A: The CCI is approaching oversold territory (-94.59), which may suggest a short-term bounce is possible, though not necessarily a trend reversal.
Q: Can HBAR reach $0.20 in July?
A: Based on current momentum and resistance barriers, reaching $0.20 appears highly unlikely unless there's a major catalyst or market-wide surge.
Q: What factors could trigger a bullish reversal?
A: Increased on-chain activity, positive project developments, or a broader altcoin rally could help restore investor confidence and drive prices higher.
Final Outlook: Patience Required for HBAR Holders
Hedera (HBAR) remains in a challenging technical position as July begins. Despite a brief bounce from multi-month lows, price action continues to reflect weak momentum and strong resistance overhead.
There’s no confirmed trend reversal yet—HBAR is still trading below key moving averages and vital psychological levels. Without a decisive breakout or surge in buying volume, sideways or downward movement appears more likely in the near term.
For traders and investors, this environment calls for caution and strategic patience. Monitoring price behavior around $0.144–$0.145 will be crucial in determining whether the next move is up or down.
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Ultimately, July may serve as a pivotal month for HBAR—if bulls can gather strength, a recovery is possible; otherwise, another leg lower cannot be ruled out.
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