Bitcoin’s market dynamics are shifting in favor of long-term conviction, with on-chain data revealing a powerful trend: long-term holders (LTHs) are accumulating BTC at a faster pace than short-term holders (STHs) are selling. As Bitcoin stabilizes above $90,000 in 2025, this divergence in behavior highlights a growing confidence among seasoned investors, even as newer market participants exit positions—some at a loss.
This article explores the evolving ownership structure of Bitcoin, analyzes current market sentiment through on-chain metrics, and unpacks what this means for future price momentum.
The Rise of Long-Term Holder Accumulation
For every 1 BTC sold by short-term holders, long-term holders have acquired 1.38 BTC—a clear signal of strong demand from those who view Bitcoin as a long-horizon asset. According to data from Glassnode, LTHs have added 635,340 BTC to their holdings since January 2025, bringing their total to 13.76 million BTC.
Long-term holders are defined as addresses that have held their coins for at least 155 days, a threshold widely accepted in on-chain analysis. These investors typically buy during periods of uncertainty and refrain from selling during volatility, acting as a stabilizing force in the market.
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Their behavior stands in stark contrast to that of short-term holders—those who acquired BTC within the past 155 days. During the same period, STHs have offloaded 460,896 BTC, either taking profits or cutting losses after the sharp correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high.
Why the 155-Day Threshold Matters
The 155-day mark is more than just an analytical benchmark—it marks a psychological and strategic inflection point in Bitcoin ownership. Investors who bought during the November 2024 rally, when BTC surged from $65,000 to $95,000, have now crossed into long-term holder status.
This transition is significant. It means that a large portion of the supply purchased during that bullish phase is now less likely to be sold in the near term. Historically, once coins move into long-term wallets, they tend to stay put for months or even years.
This "locking up" of supply reduces liquid market availability and can amplify future price increases when demand rises. With over 13.7 million BTC now held by LTHs—representing more than 70% of the total circulating supply—the market structure is increasingly resilient to panic-driven sell-offs.
Short-Term Holders Exit Amid Unrealized Losses
While long-term holders double down, short-term investors are retreating. Many entered the market during or after the peak euphoria when Bitcoin briefly exceeded $100,000 in January 2025. After a 30% drawdown from that high, a significant number now hold coins at a loss.
Glassnode data shows that approximately 2.6 million BTC remain in loss territory—coins whose current value is below the purchase price. While this is down from a peak of over 5 million BTC earlier in April, it still represents a substantial overhang of potential future selling pressure.
However, history suggests that not all "underwater" coins will be sold immediately. Some short-term holders may reclassify as long-term if they choose to wait for recovery—a pattern often seen after major corrections.
Market Sentiment: Cautious Optimism Amid Recovery
Bitcoin’s rebound above $90,000 has restored some confidence, but sentiment remains cautious. The fact that LTHs continue to accumulate despite the pullback indicates strong underlying belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
This behavior aligns with previous cycles, where mature investors used downturns as buying opportunities. In contrast, speculative traders—often operating with leverage—tended to exit during volatility, contributing to the STH sell-off observed today.
Key indicators such as exchange outflows, rising wallet balances, and declining velocity further support the narrative of supply scarcity and growing holder confidence.
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What This Means for Bitcoin’s Future Price
The current accumulation pattern sets the stage for potential upside momentum later in 2025. When long-term holders absorb more supply than short-term holders release, it creates a structural deficit in available BTC—especially on exchanges.
With halving effects still unfolding and institutional adoption gradually increasing, reduced circulating supply could act as a catalyst for renewed price appreciation.
Moreover, if macroeconomic conditions improve—such as easing inflation or rate cuts by central banks—Bitcoin could re-enter a risk-on phase, attracting both retail and institutional capital back into the market.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Who are considered long-term Bitcoin holders?
A: Long-term holders are defined as those who have held their Bitcoin for at least 155 days. This group typically exhibits stronger conviction and is less reactive to short-term price swings.
Q: Why are so many BTC holdings still at a loss?
A: Many investors bought Bitcoin during or after its all-time high near $109,000 in January 2025. After a 30% correction, those purchases now sit below cost basis, resulting in unrealized losses across 2.6 million BTC.
Q: Does LTH accumulation usually lead to higher prices?
A: Yes. Historical data shows that sustained accumulation by long-term holders often precedes bull runs. Reduced liquid supply increases scarcity, which can drive prices upward when demand returns.
Q: Are short-term holders always negative for the market?
A: Not necessarily. STHs provide liquidity and are essential for market function. However, excessive selling by STHs during downturns can increase volatility and extend bearish phases.
Q: How reliable is on-chain data for predicting BTC movements?
A: On-chain metrics offer valuable insights into investor behavior and supply dynamics. While not foolproof, they are widely used by analysts to assess market health and anticipate trends.
Q: Could these trends reverse suddenly?
A: Yes—external shocks like regulatory news or macroeconomic events could trigger unexpected shifts. However, the current trend of LTH accumulation suggests strong foundational support for Bitcoin’s price floor.
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Conclusion
The current phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle reflects a transfer of supply from speculative hands to long-term believers. As short-term holders exit and unrealized losses persist, long-term investors are stepping in to absorb selling pressure and build strategic positions.
This dynamic not only strengthens market resilience but also lays the groundwork for potential future growth. With favorable fundamentals and a tightening supply structure, Bitcoin appears increasingly positioned for another leg upward—if macro conditions align.
For investors watching from the sidelines, the message is clear: the smart money isn’t fleeing—it’s accumulating.