Bitcoin has seen a strong rally this year, followed by a sharp correction—recently dipping below $50,000 per coin. The market remains deeply divided on its value: one camp, famously represented by Warren Buffett, dismisses it as "worthless," while the other sees it as "digital gold." In this article, I’ll share my perspective—not as definitive truth, but as an invitation to discussion and mutual learning.
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The Power of Local Consensus
Let’s start with a metaphor to illustrate a key idea: local consensus can evolve into global consensus.
Imagine a substance on Earth that is rare but universally considered worthless—say, panda droppings. One day, a mysterious religious group emerges, believing panda droppings to be sacred, based on their holy texts. This group grows large and begins buying panda droppings aggressively, using them in internal rituals and trading. Panda caretakers, seeing demand, start collecting and selling it.
Over time, people outside the group notice: this “waste” can be exchanged for money. A local belief becomes a shared reality. The value isn’t intrinsic—it’s born from agreement and demand.
Bitcoin works the same way. It doesn’t need universal acceptance. It only needs a committed minority—active traders, investors, and believers—to create a self-sustaining ecosystem. As long as trading volume remains high and supply is limited (capped at 21 million), this localized trust spreads. Even skeptics like Buffett would sell a gifted Bitcoin rather than discard it—proof that value is recognized, even if not believed in.
In essence, Bitcoin is not magic. It’s a socially constructed asset, much like the panda droppings in our story—valuable because enough people act as if it is.
How Is Bitcoin Priced? Demand Is the Answer
Now that we accept Bitcoin as an asset with value, how do we determine its price?
Traditional fiat currencies are printed by governments. To maintain stability, monetary supply should ideally grow in line with GDP. Too much printing causes inflation; too little stifles growth.
Bitcoin, though not a legal tender, shares monetary traits—especially scarcity. Its supply is fixed and predictable, making it resistant to inflation. So what drives its price?
Two key demand drivers:
- Transaction Use: How many people use Bitcoin to buy goods or transfer value?
- Investment Demand: How much capital flows into Bitcoin as a store of value?
Suppose:
- Annual transaction volume in Bitcoin: $10 billion
- Annual investment inflow: $20 billion
The market cap of Bitcoin will correlate with these figures. Since supply is fixed, rising demand directly increases price.
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The critical factor? The size and growth of the "consensus group"—those who actively use or invest in Bitcoin. If more people join, or existing holders increase their exposure, prices rise. It’s not about universal adoption—just sustained momentum within this core community.
Where Does Bitcoin Demand Come From?
Bitcoin’s demand stems from two main sources: one controversial, one increasingly mainstream.
1. Underground Use (The Shadow Side)
Bitcoin’s pseudonymity made it popular on darknet markets. While this use case persists, it represents a shrinking portion of total activity and brings regulatory scrutiny.
2. Inflation Hedge (The Mainstream Appeal)
This is where Bitcoin shines as "digital gold."
Post-pandemic, governments worldwide flooded economies with stimulus. While China managed monetary policy more conservatively (evident in the yuan’s strength against the dollar), inflation eroded cash value globally.
To protect wealth, people turn to assets that appreciate with or faster than inflation:
- Real estate
- Blue-chip stocks
- Gold
- Bitcoin
Like gold, Bitcoin is scarce and non-inflationary. But it has advantages:
- Fixed supply: No central authority can devalue it.
- High liquidity: Can be traded 24/7 across borders.
- Volatility-driven appeal: Attracts speculative traders.
Crypto exchanges amplify this with leverage trading, turning Bitcoin into a high-stakes game. This isn’t investing—it’s gambling. And yet, human psychology loves risk and reward. The lack of traditional financial regulation only fuels this frenzy.
So Bitcoin sits at a crossroads: a serious hedge against inflation and a playground for speculation.
What’s Next? The Path to Stability
Bitcoin’s price will always reflect supply and demand. Given its fixed supply, long-term appreciation is likely if adoption grows.
But extreme volatility harms its credibility as a reliable asset. Frequent 20–30% swings deter institutional adoption and everyday use.
Over time, I believe:
- Speculative frenzy will fade as traders learn from losses.
- Mainstream adoption will stabilize demand.
- Price movements will become more predictable.
Consider this: gambling is a zero-sum game. No one wins forever.
Let’s do the math:
A trader makes three winning leveraged bets (+90% each) and one losing bet (–90%).
Final return:1.9 × 1.9 × 1.9 × 0.1 = 0.6859
Result? A 31.4% loss despite winning 3 out of 4 trades.
That person boasting on social media? One bad trade wipes out months of gains.
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As more realize this, speculative demand will decline. Bitcoin may evolve into a stable store of value, appreciating gradually with inflation and growing trust—not wild price swings.
Risks Ahead: Black Swans to Watch
No asset is without risk. Bitcoin faces two major threats:
1. Regulatory Crackdowns
Governments guard monetary sovereignty fiercely. If Bitcoin undermines central bank control—especially in countries with weak currencies—bans may follow.
China’s 2021 crypto ban reduced global trading volume temporarily. While full global prohibition is unlikely, regional restrictions can suppress demand and fragment markets.
2. Security Vulnerabilities
Bitcoin relies on cryptographic security. Lose your private key? Your funds are gone—no recovery.
Exchanges are prime targets:
- In 2019, Binance lost 7,000 BTC due to a security breach.
- Millions more have been stolen from other platforms over the years.
Cold wallets (offline storage) are safer—but not future-proof.
Quantum computing looms as a potential threat. If powerful quantum computers break current encryption (e.g., ECDSA), Bitcoin’s entire security model could collapse—unless the network upgrades proactively.
It may sound sci-fi, but technology evolves fast. The internet transformed society in just 50 years. Could quantum computing do the same in the next two decades?
Final Thoughts
To sum up:
- Bitcoin is not “worthless.” It has achieved local consensus, which functions as real-world value.
- Its price is driven by demand, especially from those using it as an inflation hedge.
- Long-term, speculation may fade, leading to greater price stability.
- Major risks include regulation and cybersecurity, particularly from quantum threats.
Bitcoin isn’t just code or currency—it’s a reflection of trust, scarcity, and human behavior. Whether it becomes digital gold or fades into obscurity depends on how well it navigates these forces.
What’s your take? Share your thoughts and let’s keep the conversation going.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Bitcoin really like gold?
A: In key ways—yes. Both are scarce, durable, and used as inflation hedges. But Bitcoin is more portable, divisible, and easier to verify than physical gold.
Q: Can Bitcoin go to zero?
A: Technically yes—if consensus collapses or a superior alternative emerges. But with millions of users and billions in market cap, complete failure is unlikely in the near term.
Q: Should I use leverage when trading Bitcoin?
A: Only if you fully understand the risks. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Most leveraged traders lose money over time.
Q: How can I keep my Bitcoin safe?
A: Use a hardware wallet (cold storage), enable two-factor authentication, and never share your private keys.
Q: Will governments ban Bitcoin forever?
A: Unlikely globally. Some countries restrict it; others (like El Salvador) embrace it. Regulation will evolve toward controlled acceptance.
Q: Does Bitcoin have intrinsic value?
A: Not in the traditional sense (like gold or oil). Its value comes from utility, scarcity, and collective belief—similar to fiat money, but without central control.