Stellar (XLM) has surged over 20% in the past 24 hours, reaching $0.30—a price not seen since December 2021. With a week-long rally of 124.86%, the cryptocurrency is capturing renewed investor attention as its market capitalization edges closer to the $10 billion milestone. While bullish momentum remains strong, technical indicators present a mixed outlook, signaling both opportunity and caution for traders and long-term holders alike.
This sharp rise reflects growing confidence in the Stellar network’s utility and adoption, especially amid broader market optimism in early 2025. However, sustainability of this rally hinges on continued capital inflow and the ability of XLM to hold key support levels in the coming days.
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Stellar’s Impressive Rally: RTI Hits Overbought Territory
The Relative Trend Intensity (RTI) index for Stellar currently stands at 74.10—up from below 60 just 24 hours ago. This rapid climb places XLM firmly in overbought territory, where RTI values above 70 typically suggest heightened buying pressure and strong upward momentum.
An RTI above 70 doesn’t automatically signal a reversal; instead, it highlights intense market enthusiasm driving the current uptrend. Historically, Stellar has seen periods where RTI remained above 70 for multiple days, with prices continuing to rise before eventually correcting. This pattern suggests that even in overbought conditions, there may still be room for further upside before a pullback occurs.
RTI evaluates both the speed and magnitude of price movements, making it a valuable tool for identifying momentum strength. Values above 70 indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 30 point to oversold levels. In XLM’s case, the current RTI level underscores robust bullish sentiment—but also warns of potential volatility ahead.
Traders should monitor whether the RTI begins to plateau or decline, which could foreshadow a cooling of momentum. Until then, the indicator continues to support the ongoing rally.
Chaikin Money Flow Shows Positive but Modest Capital Inflow
Stellar’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned positive at 0.06, recovering from a previous reading of -0.10. A shift into positive territory indicates renewed capital inflows, suggesting that buying pressure is returning after a brief period of selling.
CMF measures the flow of money into or out of an asset, with positive values reflecting accumulation (bullish) and negative values indicating distribution (bearish). The current CMF value of 0.06 confirms a shift in sentiment—but its relatively low magnitude raises questions about the strength and sustainability of this inflow.
For context, in mid-November, XLM’s CMF reached 0.40 and held above 0.10 for nearly a week during a strong bullish phase. The current reading, while encouraging, does not yet match that level of institutional or large-scale retail participation.
This divergence between strong price action and moderate money flow suggests that while demand is increasing, it may not yet be broad or deep enough to sustain prolonged upward movement without additional catalysts.
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XLM Price Forecast: Can Stellar Break Into the $10 Billion Club?
Reaching a $10 billion market cap would mark a significant milestone for Stellar, placing it among the more dominant players in the mid-tier cryptocurrency space. To get there, XLM needs to climb approximately 15.7% from its current price—a feasible target if bullish momentum holds.
However, achieving this goal depends heavily on whether the current rally is driven by lasting fundamentals or short-term speculation. On-chain activity, exchange flows, and broader adoption of the Stellar network for cross-border payments and tokenized assets will play crucial roles in determining long-term viability.
From a technical perspective, failure to maintain upward traction could see XLM test immediate support at $0.14. A breakdown below this level might trigger deeper selling pressure, potentially pushing prices down to $0.0994—a drop of roughly 67% from recent highs.
Such a scenario would likely unfold only if broader market conditions sour or if profit-taking accelerates among short-term traders who entered during the recent surge.
Therefore, while the path to $10 billion is open, it remains fragile—dependent on sustained investor confidence and continued use case development within the Stellar ecosystem.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the recent surge in Stellar (XLM) price?
The recent rally was fueled by renewed market interest in layer-1 blockchains, increased transaction volume on the Stellar network, and broader crypto market optimism. Technical momentum, reflected in rising RTI, also attracted short-term traders.
Is XLM overbought based on current indicators?
Yes, with an RTI of 74.10, XLM is in overbought territory. While this doesn’t guarantee a reversal, it suggests increased risk of short-term correction if buying pressure slows.
What is the significance of XLM reaching a $10 billion market cap?
A $10 billion market cap would solidify Stellar’s position among major cryptocurrencies and reflect stronger investor confidence, potentially unlocking more institutional interest and integration into financial infrastructure.
Could XLM experience a major price drop?
If support at $0.14 fails and CMF remains weak, a decline toward $0.0994 is possible—a roughly 67% drop from current highs. Risk management and monitoring of money flow trends are essential for investors.
How reliable is CMF for predicting XLM’s next move?
CMF is a valuable tool for assessing capital inflow trends. Its current positive but weak reading suggests cautious optimism—useful when combined with other indicators like RTI and volume analysis.
What should investors watch in the coming days?
Key levels to monitor include $0.14 (support), $0.30 (current resistance-turned-support), and RTI/CMF trends. Sustained CMF above 0.10 would confirm stronger accumulation.