XRP has traded at a steep discount for nearly seven years. While some analysts remain optimistic about its future, others are taking a more cautious stance—questioning whether the current wave of bullish sentiment is premature. Among them is Northstar, a macro analyst with close to 100,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), who recently challenged the growing optimism surrounding XRP.
Using technical analysis, Northstar highlighted a persistently bearish trend in XRP’s price action. According to his market charts, the asset has fallen over 83% from its previous all-time highs, with no clear signs of a sustained reversal. Despite short-term rallies, the underlying structure of the market remains weak—a fact that raises serious questions about the foundation of widespread bullishness.
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XRP’s Critical Breakdown Below Long-Term Support
One of Northstar’s most compelling arguments centers on XRP’s breakdown below a key long-term support level. Historically, this support line had held firm for years, acting as a floor during major market corrections. However, in mid-2023, XRP dropped below this critical threshold.
Initially, the decline was followed by a swift rebound—pushing prices up toward $0.94—leading some investors to believe the dip was just a temporary setback. But what followed were multiple retests of the same broken support level, now acting as resistance.
A particularly significant drop occurred in July 2024, when XRP revisited the $0.38 mark—a level that had previously served as strong support. Northstar emphasized that the current price movement appears to be a retest of this breakdown zone, suggesting that bears still maintain control over the market's direction.
This shift—from support to resistance—is a classic bearish signal in technical analysis. When an asset fails to reclaim a previously held support level, it often indicates weakening demand and diminished investor confidence.
The Resistance Line That Must Break
Although XRP recovered from its $0.38 low and climbed to $0.65 in August, it has since pulled back and is currently trading around $0.5433. While this rebound may seem encouraging, Northstar stresses that the broader trend remains bearish because XRP continues to trade below its long-term trendline resistance.
His chart analysis shows that for XRP to confirm a genuine bullish reversal, it must decisively break above $0.65—the point where the downward trendline intersects with recent price action. Until that happens, any rally should be viewed with skepticism.
“Why is anyone bullish on XRP before it breaks out above the breakout line?” — Northstar
This rhetorical question cuts to the heart of the debate: can sentiment alone drive sustainable price growth without confirming technical signals? According to Northstar, the answer is no. He argues that true bullish momentum will only emerge after XRP clears this key resistance zone and establishes higher highs and higher lows—a pattern not yet visible on the charts.
Over the past 30 days alone, XRP has declined by approximately 9%, further underscoring the fragility of recent gains. In a market environment where volatility is high and macroeconomic conditions remain uncertain, technical discipline becomes even more critical.
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Community Divided: Fundamental Hope vs. Technical Caution
Northstar’s analysis sparked a lively discussion within the crypto community. Some investors pushed back against his reliance on technical analysis, arguing that fundamentals—such as ongoing developments in Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC and adoption of the XRP Ledger—justify long-term optimism.
One commenter suggested that while technicals might guide entry points, they shouldn’t override fundamental conviction. “Many of us are holding XRP not for short-term trades but because we believe in its potential to transform cross-border payments,” they wrote.
Northstar acknowledged the role of fundamentals but maintained that timing matters. He explained that technical analysis doesn’t negate long-term value—it simply helps identify optimal entry and exit zones to maximize returns and minimize risk.
Another user, Edward Sibley, shared a personal perspective: “I’ve learned the hard way—lost over a decade’s worth of savings waiting for comebacks that never came.” His experience reflects a common dilemma among retail investors: whether to hold through downturns or strategically time the market.
Northstar responded by advising Sibley to consider going long if XRP eventually breaks out above resistance. He also proposed a hedging strategy—allocating part of a portfolio to assets like gold and silver, which he believes could offer 40–50% returns in a rising inflation environment—freeing up capital to buy more XRP post-breakout.
This hybrid approach blends patience with tactical precision, appealing to both believers in XRP’s long-term vision and traders focused on risk management.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the key resistance level for XRP right now?
A: According to recent technical analysis, XRP needs to break above $0.65 to confirm a bullish reversal. This level aligns with its long-term downward trendline and represents a critical threshold for sustained upside momentum.
Q: Why are some analysts skeptical about XRP despite recent gains?
A: Despite short-term rallies, XRP continues to trade below its historical support-turned-resistance line. A 9% drop over the past month and failure to reclaim key levels raise concerns about the strength of the current recovery.
Q: Can fundamentals justify holding XRP even in a bearish market?
A: Yes—many investors believe in XRP’s utility for fast, low-cost international payments and are encouraged by Ripple’s legal progress. However, combining fundamental conviction with technical timing can improve overall returns.
Q: What does a breakdown below long-term support mean for XRP?
A: It suggests weakening demand and increased selling pressure. Once support breaks and fails to hold during retests, it often becomes resistance—a sign that bearish momentum may persist until new catalysts emerge.
Q: How can traders prepare for a potential XRP breakout?
A: Traders can monitor price action around $0.65 closely. A sustained close above this level with strong volume could signal a valid breakout. Setting conditional orders or using alerts can help capture early moves.
Q: Is it too early to be bullish on XRP?
A: That depends on your strategy. While long-term holders may see value at current levels, technical traders generally wait for confirmation—such as a breakout above resistance—before turning aggressively bullish.
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