XRP surged by 10% amid growing optimism fueled by speculation around a potential resolution in the long-running SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit and unexpected geopolitical developments. Investor sentiment received a dual boost from the possibility of a favorable court ruling and former President Donald Trump’s call for a temporary ceasefire in Middle Eastern conflicts—both contributing to a broader risk-on market environment.
Simultaneously, the successful launch of the 3iQ XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange has reignited discussions about the likelihood of a U.S.-based spot XRP ETF, further amplifying market enthusiasm.
Court Settlement Hopes Propel XRP Past Key Resistance
Recent momentum behind XRP can be traced to increasing confidence that the SEC v. Ripple case may reach a swift conclusion. On June 23, XRP climbed 6.9%, rebounding from a Sunday dip and closing at $2.1607**. This upward movement outpaced the overall crypto market, which rose by **4.93%**, pushing the total market capitalization to **$3.21 trillion.
The surge coincides with mounting speculation that the legal battle—once expected to extend into 2026—could end much sooner. Legal expert Bill Morgan recently dismissed extended delays as improbable, noting that unless Judge Analisa Torres rejects the joint settlement motion, the case is likely to conclude without prolonged appeals.
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Under the proposed settlement, Ripple would pay a reduced $50 million penalty, while the SEC would drop its appeal regarding the classification of XRP as a non-security for programmatic sales. If approved, this outcome would eliminate one of the most significant regulatory overhangs affecting XRP’s market standing.
Such clarity could pave the way for institutional adoption and strengthen the case for a U.S. spot XRP ETF. While Polymarket odds for ETF approval have dipped slightly—from 98.2% to 74% since early June—analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Notably, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart recently upgraded their projection, estimating a 95% chance of approval, up from 75%.
A favorable ruling from Judge Torres could lift restrictions on institutional trading of XRP, clearing regulatory uncertainty that has hindered financial product development in the U.S.
Canadian XRP ETF Gains Traction, Fueling U.S. Approval Hopes
The successful debut of the 3iQ XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange has added tangible momentum to XRP’s bullish narrative. Within just three trading days, the fund amassed C$32 million in assets under management (AUM), making it the largest XRP-dedicated ETF in Canada.
This performance mirrors the strong reception of 3iQ’s earlier Solana ETF and underscores sustained demand for regulated exposure to digital assets among both retail and institutional investors. Pascal St-Jean, President of 3iQ, emphasized that early adoption reflects investor appetite for diversified crypto access through traditional financial channels.
The Canadian market’s positive response intensifies pressure on U.S. regulators to reconsider their stance on spot XRP ETF applications. Currently, U.S. approval remains stalled due to lingering concerns over XRP’s regulatory classification—a hurdle that could diminish with a finalized settlement in the Ripple lawsuit.
Geopolitical Calm Boosts Risk Appetite
Adding to the favorable conditions, Donald Trump’s surprise endorsement of a temporary ceasefire in Middle Eastern conflicts has contributed to improved global market sentiment. While not directly tied to cryptocurrency fundamentals, such geopolitical developments often influence investor behavior in risk assets, including digital currencies.
Markets interpreted the announcement as a potential de-escalation signal, reducing uncertainty and encouraging capital inflows into higher-risk investments. This shift in macro sentiment created a supportive backdrop for XRP’s rally, reinforcing its upward trajectory alongside broader crypto gains.
What’s Next for XRP? Key Catalysts Ahead
Looking ahead, several critical factors will shape XRP’s price action and long-term trajectory:
- Judge Torres’ Ruling: The timing and outcome of her decision on the joint settlement motion will be pivotal. A green light could trigger a wave of institutional interest.
- SEC’s Final Position: Whether the SEC formally withdraws its appeal will determine how quickly regulatory clarity is achieved.
- U.S. ETF Prospects: Approval momentum appears to be building, especially with increasing precedent from international markets like Canada.
- Market Adoption: Continued growth in XRP Ledger usage—recently reaching 295,000 daily users—demonstrates strong underlying utility and network activity.
As of this writing, XRP is trading at $2.17, reflecting a 10% gain over the past 24 hours—a move that signals renewed confidence among traders and investors alike.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did XRP jump 10% recently?
A: XRP rose due to speculation about an imminent resolution in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit and positive geopolitical news, including a proposed ceasefire in the Middle East, which boosted overall risk appetite in financial markets.
Q: Is the Ripple lawsuit ending soon?
A: Legal experts suggest the case could conclude quickly if Judge Analisa Torres approves the joint settlement motion. A ruling is expected soon, potentially avoiding years of appeals.
Q: What does the Canadian XRP ETF mean for U.S. investors?
A: The success of the 3iQ XRP ETF in Canada demonstrates strong demand for regulated XRP exposure, increasing pressure on U.S. regulators to consider approving a domestic spot ETF.
Q: Could a U.S. spot XRP ETF be approved?
A: Recent analyst estimates suggest a 95% chance of approval, especially if regulatory clarity is achieved through a finalized settlement between Ripple and the SEC.
Q: How might geopolitical events affect XRP’s price?
A: While not directly linked, global stability improves investor confidence in risk assets like cryptocurrencies, often leading to increased buying activity across the sector.
Q: What is the significance of the $50 million settlement?
A: The reduced penalty indicates a compromise that acknowledges XRP’s unique status, potentially setting a precedent for how digital assets are regulated in the U.S. financial system.
With multiple catalysts converging—from legal resolution to growing institutional demand—XRP stands at a pivotal moment. The combination of regulatory progress, market adoption, and favorable macro conditions positions it as one of the most closely watched digital assets in 2025.
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