The crypto world is holding its breath as May 23, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs. With approval odds now estimated at 75%—a dramatic shift from just 25% a week ago—the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to make a decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application today. As the first of several similar filings, this ruling could set the tone for the entire industry.
If approved, the SEC is expected to greenlight other applications from major financial players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco Galaxy in quick succession, mirroring its approach with Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. Market anticipation has already sent Ethereum’s price surging over 27% in the past week, driven by expectations of massive institutional inflows.
But don’t expect trading to begin immediately—even approval doesn’t mean instant access.
👉 Discover how ETF approvals could reshape your investment strategy in 2025.
The Two-Step ETF Approval Process
For any spot Ethereum ETF to hit the markets, two critical regulatory filings must be approved: Form 19b-4 and Form S-1.
- Form 19b-4 is submitted by a self-regulatory organization (SRO), such as Nasdaq or CBOE, and outlines the proposed rule changes needed to list and trade the ETF. It details the product’s structure, custody solutions, surveillance agreements, and anti-fraud mechanisms.
- Form S-1 is the issuer’s registration statement, providing investors with essential disclosures about fees, risks, fund operations, and financial condition.
While both are necessary, Form 19b-4 is the gatekeeper. Without its approval, no ETF can launch—regardless of how complete the S-1 may be.
Today’s deadline focuses solely on the 19b-4 decision. The S-1 forms are still under review and could take additional time, creating a gap between approval and actual trading.
James Fabien, lead analyst at Asset Insight Partners, clarifies: “The 19b-4 defines whether the product can trade. The S-1 ensures transparency. One enables functionality; the other fulfills compliance.”
When Will Ethereum ETFs Start Trading?
Even with a favorable ruling today, investors shouldn’t expect Ethereum ETFs to go live overnight.
Michael Van de Poppe, CEO of MN Trading and a leading crypto analyst, estimates a 2–3 month timeline before the first spot Ethereum ETF begins trading. This delay accounts for final S-1 approvals, exchange readiness, custodial setup verification, and market-making infrastructure.
“The idea that approval equals immediate trading is a common misconception,” Van de Poppe told The Defiant. “We’re looking at weeks, possibly months, of post-approval procedures.”
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts have updated their forecast accordingly, raising the probability of approval from 25% to 75% within the next few months. However, they stress that immediate launches—within 24 to 48 hours—are highly unlikely.
Why Are Approval Odds Rising?
Several converging factors have boosted confidence in a positive SEC decision:
1. Political Momentum
Former President Donald Trump’s vocal support for crypto during his 2025 campaign has shifted the political landscape. His endorsement has been echoed by bipartisan legislative efforts, including:
- H.J. Res. 109, which seeks to block SEC overreach in crypto regulation.
- The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), gaining cross-party traction in Congress.
Jake Chervinsky, Chief Legal Officer at Variant Fund, believes politics is now central: “Crypto has been winning the political battle for months. The Biden administration likely sees the electoral cost of opposing pro-crypto sentiment and is adjusting accordingly.”
2. Strategic Filings Adjustments
In recent days, major applicants—including BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck—have revised their filings to remove staking rewards from their ETF proposals. This move addresses a key regulatory concern: the SEC’s hesitation around products that might classify ETH as a security due to staking’s yield-generating nature.
Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer, notes: “Removing staking was expected. More telling is that the commodity grantor trust structure remains unchanged—all signs point to the SEC accepting ETH as a commodity.”
👉 See how staking changes impact Ethereum’s future as an investment asset.
3. Risk Mitigation for Ethereum
James Fabien adds that avoiding staking could benefit Ethereum’s long-term health. “Right now, a large portion of ETH supply is concentrated in staking platforms like Lido and Coinbase. If the SEC restricts staking in ETFs, institutional capital may flow into non-staked ETH instead—reducing centralization risks and improving network resilience.”
What Happens If the SEC Says No?
Rejection isn’t the end of the road.
Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, outlines two paths forward:
- Reapply with revisions based on SEC feedback.
- Pursue legal action, as Grayscale successfully did when it sued the SEC to force Bitcoin ETF approval.
Given the current political climate and growing market pressure, a lawsuit over Ethereum could gain even stronger public and judicial support.
Could This Open the Door for Other Crypto ETFs?
Many analysts believe Ethereum’s approval could be the breakthrough moment for broader crypto adoption in traditional finance.
Daniel Enright of LightLink states: “Once Pandora’s box is open—legitimizing assets beyond Bitcoin—we could see recognition extend to other leading ecosystems.” He specifically names Solana and Chainlink as potential future candidates.
However, not all experts agree on the timeline.
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, insists that a spot Solana ETF won’t happen until either:
- The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) lists Solana futures, or
- Congress passes a clear crypto regulatory framework.
Adam Cochran of Cinneamhain Ventures offers a different view: “I think LTC and DOGE come first. Lower demand, but cleaner regulatory paths.”
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What happens if the SEC approves VanEck’s Ethereum ETF today?
A: Approval means the 19b-4 filing is accepted, but trading won’t start immediately. Other issuers will likely receive approvals soon after, assuming no objections.
Q: How long after approval will Ethereum ETFs start trading?
A: Experts estimate 2–3 months, depending on S-1 clearance and exchange readiness.
Q: Why did companies remove staking from their ETF proposals?
A: To avoid triggering securities classification concerns. Staking rewards could imply an investment contract under Howey Test criteria.
Q: Will Ethereum ETFs cause ETH’s price to rise?
A: Likely yes. Institutional inflows from ETFs could bring billions in new capital, similar to the Bitcoin ETF effect in 2024.
Q: Can other cryptocurrencies get spot ETFs after Ethereum?
A: Possibly—but only if they meet regulatory benchmarks like futures markets or clear legal status. Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin are among those speculated.
Q: What if the SEC rejects all applications?
A: Filers can revise and resubmit or challenge the decision in court—just as Grayscale did with Bitcoin.
👉 Stay ahead of the next wave of crypto innovation—explore what’s next after Ethereum ETFs.
Final Outlook
The May 23 deadline is more than just a regulatory milestone—it’s a potential turning point for crypto’s integration into mainstream finance. While immediate trading remains unlikely, today’s decision could confirm that Ethereum is firmly recognized as a commodity, clearing one of the last major hurdles.
With political winds shifting, filings strategically adjusted, and institutional demand building, the path to launch appears clearer than ever. Whether it takes weeks or months, the summer of 2025 may mark the beginning of a new era for digital asset investing.
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