Solana (SOL) has recently found itself at a crossroads. Despite a massive outflow of nearly $491 million from long-term holders, signs of growing retail interest are emerging. With technical indicators hinting at a potential rebound, the critical question remains: **Can retail demand outweigh institutional and whale selling pressure to propel SOL past the key $155 resistance level?**
This article dives into on-chain data, user behavior trends, and technical signals to assess whether Solana’s next move will be upward — or if further consolidation lies ahead.
Whale Activity Shifts Back to Distribution
After a brief period of accumulation on June 22, long-term holders (LTHs) of Solana have resumed offloading their holdings. According to Glassnode data, net holder supply changes turned negative again by June 28, with a staggering -4.91 million SOL exiting long-term wallets — equivalent to roughly $491 million at current prices.
This marks the continuation of a week-long distribution phase, reversing the temporary optimism sparked by a modest +1.7 million SOL inflow earlier in the month. While that short-lived accumulation suggested whales might be regaining confidence, the latest data paints a different picture.
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The return to net outflows coincides with SOL price action stalling near resistance levels between $140 and $150. The black price line on Glassnode’s chart underscores this correlation: as selling pressure increases, upward momentum falters. This dynamic suggests that large investors are taking profits or hedging exposure, potentially in anticipation of broader market volatility or project-specific developments.
Such behavior isn’t uncommon during consolidation phases. Historically, after strong rallies, whales often redistribute supply before the next leg up — assuming fundamentals remain strong and new demand emerges to absorb the sell-off.
Retail Influx Signals Growing Interest
While long-term holders step back, a new wave of users is stepping in — a trend closely watched by analysts as a leading indicator of future price sustainability.
On June 22, Solana saw a surge in new wallet creations, with 5.44 million new addresses added in a single day — the highest level in nearly two months. This spike reflects renewed retail engagement, possibly driven by ecosystem developments, NFT activity, or improved network performance following past outages.
However, the pace slowed by June 28, with new addresses dropping to 3.35 million, closer to early-month baselines. While the surge wasn’t sustained, the overall trend still points to consistent organic growth in user adoption.
This retail participation is crucial. Unlike whales whose large trades can distort markets, retail investors typically buy with longer time horizons and lower exit sensitivity. If these new users hold through volatility, they could form the foundation of the next bull cycle — absorbing supply from exiting whales and stabilizing price action.
Moreover, increased retail demand often precedes broader ecosystem expansion, including higher transaction volumes, DeFi deposits, and dApp innovation — all positive signals for SOL’s long-term value proposition.
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Technical Indicators Show Cautious Optimism
From a technical perspective, Solana’s price structure is showing early signs of recovery — though confirmation is still pending.
As of this writing:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 51, indicating neutral momentum. It’s neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either breakout or pullback.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has crossed above its signal line for the first time in several days, with histogram bars turning green — a bullish signal suggesting accelerating upside momentum.
Yet, these positive cues come with caveats:
- Trading volume remains relatively low at around 105K SOL per day, below what’s typically needed to sustain a breakout.
- Price candles lack strong bullish conviction — no large green bars or decisive closes above key resistance.
The immediate ceiling for SOL is clear: $155, the recent high that has repeatedly rejected upward attempts. A confirmed close above this level — ideally on rising volume — would validate bullish momentum and likely attract algorithmic and institutional buyers.
Until then, traders remain cautious. The market appears to be waiting for a catalyst: either stronger retail inflows, positive ecosystem news, or broader crypto market strength.
Can Retail Absorb Whale Supply?
The core narrative shaping Solana’s near-term trajectory is this: Can growing retail demand offset ongoing whale distribution?
Historically, successful breakouts occur when new demand outpaces supply from sellers. In Solana’s case:
- Whale outflows (-4.91M SOL) represent significant selling pressure.
- But rising new address counts suggest fresh capital entering the ecosystem.
- Combined with improving technicals, this sets up a classic battle between old money exiting and new investors entering.
If retail participation continues to grow — especially in DeFi, NFTs, and staking — it could create enough buying pressure to neutralize whale sales. This would allow SOL to gradually build momentum toward $155 and beyond.
However, if retail enthusiasm fades or macro conditions sour (e.g., risk-off sentiment in equities), the imbalance could lead to further downside toward support zones near $130–$135.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why are long-term holders selling Solana now?
A: Long-term holders may be taking profits after previous price gains, rebalancing portfolios, or reacting to market uncertainty. Periodic distribution is normal after rallies and doesn’t necessarily signal long-term bearishness.
Q: Does the increase in new addresses mean Solana is gaining popularity?
A: Yes — rising wallet creation indicates growing user interest. When combined with low churn rates (few inactive wallets), it suggests genuine adoption rather than speculative spam.
Q: What does SOL need to break above $155?
A: A sustained breakout requires both technical confirmation (e.g., strong volume-backed close above $155) and fundamental catalysts such as exchange listings, protocol upgrades, or increased dApp usage.
Q: Is Solana still competitive compared to other Layer 1 blockchains?
A: Absolutely. With fast transaction speeds, low fees, and a thriving NFT and DeFi ecosystem, Solana remains a top contender. Developer activity and venture funding continue to support its position.
Q: How important is retail demand for Solana’s price?
A: Extremely. Retail investors provide consistent buying pressure and ecosystem engagement. Their participation helps stabilize prices during whale sell-offs and fuels long-term network growth.
Q: Where can I track Solana’s on-chain metrics in real time?
A: Platforms like Glassnode and Artemis provide live data on wallet activity, supply distribution, and network health — essential tools for informed decision-making.
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Final Outlook: A Battle Between Old and New Money
Solana stands at a pivotal moment. On one side, long-term holders are distributing nearly half a billion dollars’ worth of SOL. On the other, retail adoption is heating up, with millions of new users joining the network.
Technically, momentum is turning slightly bullish — but not yet confirmed. The $155 resistance level remains the gatekeeper to the next phase of growth.
For investors, the message is clear: watch both on-chain activity and price action at key levels. If retail demand continues to rise and absorbs whale supply, Solana could soon reclaim upward momentum — potentially setting the stage for a breakout in late 2025.
Until then, patience and precision will be key.
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