XRP is currently attempting to stabilize around the $2.15 level after encountering strong resistance in the $2.33–$2.35 zone earlier this week. The recent price action reflects a broader technical correction, with market sentiment under pressure from macroeconomic concerns, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting on-chain dynamics.
Despite the pullback, key support has held firm between $2.08 and $2.10—a zone that aligns with both the long-term ascending trendline from April and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level on the weekly chart. This confluence of technical support has temporarily halted the selling momentum.
On the 4-hour chart, momentum indicators are showing early signs of recovery. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD have begun to climb out of oversold territory, suggesting a potential relief bounce could be on the horizon. However, for bulls to regain control and signal a meaningful reversal, XRP must reclaim and sustainably trade above the $2.23–$2.26 resistance area.
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Technical and Market Drivers Behind XRP’s Decline
The latest downturn in XRP’s price stems from a combination of technical breakdowns and broader market forces. A descending trendline, in place since late May, has consistently capped upward momentum. When XRP failed to maintain positions above $2.20, it triggered a cascade of stop-loss orders, accelerating the drop toward $2.10.
This technical weakness was compounded by a broader risk-off environment across the cryptocurrency market. Altcoins, including major players like Solana and Cardano, have seen synchronized declines, reflecting reduced appetite for higher-volatility digital assets.
If XRP fails to defend the $2.08 support, the next downside targets come into focus:
- $2.00 – A psychologically significant level and short-term support
- $1.92 – Corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the November 2024 low to the 2025 peak
A rebound from $1.92 could meet resistance around $2.18 before bulls are able to retest the critical $2.26 resistance zone. Until then, the path of least resistance remains bearish.
Key Bearish Catalysts: Insights from Market Analysts
Market analyst Anton Kharitonov has highlighted several structural and macro-level factors contributing to XRP’s current weakness.
First, rising geopolitical tensions—particularly escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran—have prompted investors to de-risk their portfolios. High-beta assets like XRP are often among the first to see outflows during periods of global uncertainty.
Second, regulatory ambiguity continues to weigh on investor sentiment. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to approve a spot XRP ETF, despite growing demand and precedent set by approvals for other cryptocurrencies. This delay has dampened institutional enthusiasm and limited bullish catalysts in the near term.
“Although XRP is down, it’s still outperforming most altcoins. I expect it to gain at least 20% by the end of this month,” said Anton Kharitonov.
Despite his cautious outlook on short-term price action, Kharitonov remains optimistic about XRP’s medium-term potential, citing its strong fundamentals and use case in cross-border payments.
On-Chain Data Reveals Growing Selling Pressure
Beyond price charts, on-chain metrics paint a concerning picture for XRP holders.
Network activity on the XRP Ledger has declined noticeably, with both active wallet counts and transaction volumes trending downward. Reduced usage suggests weakening organic demand—a red flag for long-term investors.
More alarmingly, whale activity indicates growing distribution pressure. Large holders have transferred significant volumes of XRP to centralized exchanges, a behavior historically associated with impending sell-offs. When whales move tokens to exchanges, it often precedes price declines as supply increases in trading pools.
Additionally, technical patterns on multiple timeframes suggest bearish continuation. The formation of a descending triangle on the daily chart—a classic bearish pattern—indicates persistent selling pressure at lower highs. Until this pattern resolves with a decisive breakout above resistance, any rallies are likely to be short-lived.
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Can XRP Recover? What’s Next for Price Action
While current conditions favor bears, several factors could spark a reversal:
- A resolution in geopolitical tensions could restore risk appetite.
- Positive regulatory developments—such as progress toward an ETF—could reignite institutional interest.
- A successful bounce from $2.08–$2.10 could attract technical buyers and trigger short-covering.
Traders should monitor volume closely during any attempted rebound. Sustained buying volume above $2.26 would confirm renewed bullish momentum and open the door toward retesting $2.35.
Conversely, a break below $2.08 with high volume would signal deeper correction risks, potentially extending losses toward $1.92 or even $1.80 in a worst-case scenario.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is stable?
A: While Bitcoin often sets the overall market tone, altcoins like XRP are influenced by their own technicals, news cycles, and sector-specific risks. Regulatory delays and reduced network activity are unique pressures affecting XRP independently.
Q: Is XRP still a good investment in 2025?
A: Many analysts believe so. XRP’s underlying technology and partnerships with financial institutions support long-term value. However, short-term volatility due to regulation and market sentiment should be expected.
Q: What is the significance of the 0.382 Fibonacci level?
A: The 0.382 Fib level is a common retracement zone where price often finds temporary support during uptrends. Its alignment with the April trendline strengthens its importance as a key floor for XRP.
Q: How does whale activity affect XRP’s price?
A: When large holders transfer XRP to exchanges, it increases available supply for sale. This often precedes downward price movement unless matched by strong buying demand.
Q: Could an ETF approval change XRP’s trajectory?
A: Yes. An approved spot XRP ETF would bring institutional capital, improve liquidity, and enhance market credibility—potentially triggering a major bullish cycle similar to what occurred with Bitcoin ETFs.
Q: What technical pattern should I watch right now?
A: The descending triangle on the daily chart is critical. A breakout above $2.35 would be bullish; a breakdown below $2.08 would confirm further downside.
Despite recent weakness, XRP remains one of the most widely adopted digital assets for cross-border payments, with Ripple’s partnerships spanning over 50 countries.
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Final Thoughts
XRP’s current dip reflects a confluence of technical correction, macro risks, and regulatory delays—not a fundamental breakdown. While short-term sentiment is cautious, key support levels remain intact, and recovery signals are beginning to emerge on lower timeframes.
For traders and investors alike, patience is key. Monitoring support holds, whale movements, and regulatory updates will be essential in determining whether this pullback becomes a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.
With strong foundational use cases and growing adoption in global finance, XRP’s long-term outlook remains resilient—even amid today’s turbulence.
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